The Post-Pandemic Crisis: What Happens Next?
The failure of multilateral strategic decision-making in these COVID times has been led by the Trump Administration and its bizarre attacks on international institutions.
- In many middle- and low-income countries destitution, mounting refugee numbers, rising income inequality and deteriorating health conditions are among the consequences of COVID 19.
- Because of the effects of the coronavirus, there is a need for a massive increase in foreign aid.
- The IMF will need to develop systems to enable aid-receiving countries to be open to forceful IMF monitoring of exactly how the aid funds are used.
- If multilateral aid is not to be stolen, aid donors will have to use in-country citizens to monitor the effective deployment of the aid.
- IMF loans are being used by the recipient countries to pay off the Chinese and commercial creditors.
The coronavirus pandemic has produced a great unraveling. To counter its effects will demand great determination in 2021, 2022 and beyond.
Planning for this challenging global future needs to start right now — even though we do not yet know the full degree of the pain that the world’s citizens and their economies are set to endure in the immediate period ahead.
What the World Bank and IMF say
World Bank President David Malpass estimates that up to 150 million people are being plunged into extreme poverty this year, taking the global total to well above 800 million. By the end of 2021, the total could be far higher.
The IMF, in a bold declaration of wishful thinking, forecasts that the world’s economy will recover significantly in 2021 from its near-depression 2020 levels.
The Fund’s crystal ball tells it that the economic rebound will be due to the demise of the virus and the abundance of vaccines and effective treatments.
This optimism comes amid mounting evidence of a second virus surge set to force new lock-downs and further economic hardship in many countries.
Who is to say with confidence at this juncture that a third surge can be ruled out next year?
The great unraveling embraces a failure of multilateral strategic decision-making at the highest levels.
The Trump administration has led the charge as the great disrupter – attacking the World Health Organization, deriding the World Trade Organization, and failing to lead on multilateral financial responses.
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