How is Boris Johnson’s deal different from Theresa May’s?
How the numbers stack up ahead of tomorrow’s vote
All attention at Westminster at the moment is focused on whether Boris Johnson will be able to get the 320 or so votes that he needs to pass his deal tomorrow. Many people have been looking at the numbers, but at the moment there is no consensus yet as to whether or not Johnson can win – mostly because some MPs will not declare how they will vote until the last moment.
My colleague Rowena Mason published an analysis of the situation at around lunchtime yesterday. She said that at that point Johnson had 259 votes in the bag, and needed about 60-odd more votes, from a pool of potentially about 71 votes – mostly hardline Tory Brexiters (28), anti-no-deal former Tories (19) and Brexity opposition MPs (21). Her full analysis is here.
The Financial Times has tried to produce a tally. As Sebastian Payne reports, as of last night they had 318 MPs due to support the deal, and 321 against.
Sebastian Payne
✔@SebastianEPayne
@FinancialTimes analysis of the Commons numbers ahead of Saturday’s big vote.
On the Today programme, the Labour MP Graham Stringer, who voted to leave the European Union in 2016 but voted against Theresa May’s Brexit deal, admitted he might vote for Boris Johnson’s plans. He said it was very similar to May’s deal, better in some respects but worse in others. But getting Brexit delivered was a priority, he said.
[I] will consider whether, if this deal goes down, we won’t get Brexit at all. So it’s a bad deal. But if I thought that we wouldn’t get Brexit at all, then I would consider voting for it.
Graham Stringer. Photograph: Christopher Thomond/The Guardian
Dominic Raab desperately trying to spin the deal as not creating a customs border in the Irish Sea. Checks or no checks, there will be a customs border in the Irish Sea. Goods passing through NI to EU from GB will be taxed with EU tariff – hence there will be a border #r4today
Not necessarily a bad thing. Many in NI will be thrilled by having one foot in each customs regime. But it’s simply disingenuous to claim this doesn’t create a customs border. Raab should just cough to it and admit it is a UK concession (EU made plenty as well) #r4today
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Raab claims Brexit plan is ‘cracking deal for Northern Ireland businesses’
Andrew Sparrow
Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Ben Quinn.
The foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, got the 8.10am slot on the Today programme this morning, and he was asked about how Boris Johnson can defend his new Brexit plan, which would in practice put a customs border down the Irish Sea, when, in a speech to the DUP conference last year, he said no Conservative government could sign up to a plan that would impose customs controls between Britain and Northern Ireland.
If we wanted to do free trade deals, if we wanted to cut tariffs … if we wanted to vary our regulation then we would have to leave Northern Ireland behind as an economic semi-colony of the EU and we would be damaging the fabric of the union with regulatory checks and even customs controls between Great Britain and Northern Ireland – on top of those extra regulatory checks down the Irish Sea that are already envisaged in the withdrawal agreement.
Now I have to tell you, no British Conservative government could or should sign up to any such arrangement.
Asked if the government was signing up to an arrangement of the kind that Johnson said would be unacceptable, Raab replied: “No.” He went on:
Under the new arrangements, the only tariff that could conceivably be levied in relation to goods in Northern Ireland would be in relation to those that come from GB where the idea is to circumvent the rules of the single market and the ultimate destination is mainland Europe. Even then the UK has a double safeguard of waiver or reimbursement. That is not something that was there before.
In terms of the regulatory side of customs, the paperwork of customs, there will be none from Northern Ireland to Britain. Great Britain to Northern Ireland already has regulatory declarations, there is already a regulatory border but not a customs border. So there will be an incremental additional section that would have to be filled out on the form. But that is not a substantial extra burden for business.
And, overall, what Northern Ireland businesses get is remaining part of the UK customs territory, no infrastructure at the border with the Republic and frictionless access to the single market. It is a cracking deal for Northern Ireland businesses.
‘Vast majority’ of ERG will back PM’s deal, claims leading Tory Brexiter
Andrew Bridgen, the Tory MP and leading member of the European Research Group (ERG), has predicted the vast majority of the hardline pro-Brexit grouping within the parliamentary party will vote for the deal. He said:
I think the vast majority of the ERG will come to the conclusion that this deal is tolerable. What we don’t want is a second referendum.
Sturgeon suggests Labour would be ‘quite happy’ to see Brexit deal passed
Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister and the SNP leader, has tweeted her suspicions that Labour will ultimately be happy to allow the deal to go through tomorrow:
Nicola Sturgeon(@NicolaSturgeon)
Hope I’m wrong but I have a real suspicion that Labour would be quite happy to see this deal go through. They will officially oppose but give nod to ‘rebels’ to ensure numbers there to pass. It will be the end of them in Scotland if they do end up facilitating Brexit. https://t.co/OVh7K7kQlO
McDonnell said he did not expect Labour MPs to defy the party whip by voting for the deal, but added that he believed in the “powers of persuasion”.
He was against the deal “because we won’t vote for anything that makes our constituents or our country poorer and by any assessment that’s what this deal will do”. He went on:
It will introduce checks and barriers on our border and. It is worse than Theresa May’s deal because it removes those commitments that she was willing to offer about a level playing field to protect workers’ rights, environmental standards and consumer rights.
McDonnell plays down prospect of Labour pushing for confirmatory referendum tomorrow
The shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, has indicated that the priority of Labour tomorrow will be opposing the deal the government has negotiated, rather than pushing for a second referendum or ”confirmatory vote”.
“To be frank, I think on Saturday we should just vote the deal down because it’s such a bad deal,” he said, speaking on the Today programme.
He appealed to other Labour MP’s such as Ronnie Campbell (who has been a firm backer of Jeremy Corbyn, pictured with him below), who has revealed he is likely to vote for the deal when it comes to the House of Commons in a special Saturday sitting, not to do so.
“I’m going to have a chat with Ronnie,” added McDonnell, who warned against what powers would come into the government’s hand on issues such as employment rights.
These are the extreme right that have attacked trade unions throughout their careers and you cannot allow them to have these powers.
I’m likely to vote for it. I think we’ve got to get something across the line. The people of this country are just sick and tired of the shenanigans that have gone on in parliament over the last three years.
Something’s got to happen. Something’s got to break.
Jeremy Corbyn (left) with the Labour MP Ronnie Campbell during a general election campaign event in Blyth in June, 2017. Photograph: Scott Heppell/AFP/Getty Images
Among old (former) colleagues from the Labour party, there is some disquiet after Chuka Umunna wondered aloud “how on earth” any Labour MP could vote for Johnson’s deal.
“The Labour party is generally of one voice in saying that people didn’t vote to be poorer and that is what this agreement is about,” the former Labour, now Liberal Democrat, MP added.
I haven’t spoken to any Labour MP representing a leave seat who says that their constituent voted to make the country poorer.
He added that a lot of those who had been mooted as potential supporters were people who were not standing again and he would “very respectfully ask them, do you want one of your last acts in parliament to be helping to facilitate one of the most rightwing, nationalist, political projects this country has ever seen?”
An answer came in fairly short order on Twitter from Gloria de Piero, a Labour MP who is stepping down at the next election as the MP for Ashfield, where voters backed leave by 70% in the 2016 EU referendum.
Gloria De Piero(@GloriaDePiero)
Is Chuka Ummuna really on the radio giving Labour MPs a lecture on loyalty to the Labour Party or am I still asleep and just having a weird dream
In October, she was one of 19 Labour MPs who wrote to the European Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, saying they “wish to see the British EU referendum result honoured without further delay”.
A cheery-looking Dominic Raab has come out to bat on the morning television bulletins, claiming the deal is a “cracking one” for Northern Ireland.
Not only does Northern Ireland have “frictionless access” to the single market, but there is no hard border and a consent mechanism has been enshrined, the foreign secretary told BBC1.
On tomorrow’s vote, Raab said the government would be making the argument to MPs who are worried about no deal that this is the opportunity to secure a deal
It’s dealt with the lion’s share that people like me certainly had with the last deal.
It takes about two minutes before he checks off Downing Street’s “now is the moment to get Brexit done” talking point (election slogan?).
There’s a concerted attempt by Raab to paint the deal as very different from Theresa May’s, adding that the prime minister, “against all the odds”, had secured key changes
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Sebastian Payne@FinancialTimes analysis of the Commons numbers ahead of Saturday’s big vote.
Sam Coates Sky@SamCoatesSky
