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Hurricane Jose may meander not far from the East Coast through Friday – The Washington Post

The latest forecast trends for Hurricane Jose hint that the Atlantic states won’t be out of the woods for a while.

As Hurricane Irma tears a path of destruction through Florida, another major hurricane, Jose, has a message for residents along the U.S. East Coast: Don’t forget about me just yet.

Jose, a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, is currently located a few hundred miles to the north of Puerto Rico, steadily moving toward the northwest and away from land at 16 mph. Jose is expected to continue this general motion and speed over the next 24 hours.

The National Hurricane Center’s forecast track for Jose shows a Friday location about 300 miles from the storm’s current location. Via NHC

However, after Monday night, Jose may slam on the brakes hard, ceasing nearly all forward motion, probably setting up a roller-coaster-like path that will take the storm in a series of loops, circles, dips and dives over for all of next week. By Friday morning, despite a full six days of movement, the National Hurricane Center expects Jose to be just 300 miles away from its current position.

Spaghetti charts for Jose show a complicated future for the storm. Via NCAR

A complicated high-altitude environment over the Atlantic Ocean is what is causing Jose to wobble around the Atlantic.

The storm’s current motion eventually would allow the storm to curve out to sea in a solution most models were showing just a few days ago. However, the sprawling high pressure that brought the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast such gorgeous weather this weekend is about to get in Jose’s way.

The forecast for Tuesday morning shows that high pressure (black circle) will move offshore and prevent Jose from escaping out to sea. Via OPC

Unable to move to the north and restricted from moving to the east by a developing upper-level high pressure, Jose should have no choice but to meander for a few days between Bermuda and the southeast U.S.

The latest European model shows Jose circling around the west Atlantic for much of the upcoming week. ViaWXBell

Jose won’t lose much intensity during this loop to nowhere, as the storm will have plenty of warm water for fuel. The Hurricane Center reports that Jose will “remain over SSTs [sea surface temperatures] over 29C [84 degrees Fahrenheit] for the entire forecast period”.

Jose’s future beyond Friday is even more convoluted. Forecast models are having a hard time figuring out what the state of the atmosphere will be like beyond five days. Irma’s ultimate path and eventual decay could play an important role in determining where Jose ends up.

In addition, the position of the jet stream as well as the size and scope of the pressure systems over the Atlantic beyond 120 hours is extremely hard to resolve at the moment.

That said, those of us along the East Coast will need to keep an eye on Jose. It’s always a bit dangerous having a hurricane hanging around, and given the propensity for this particular storm to buck forecast trends, Jose is certainly worthy of the attention.

Where does Jose end up? It’s complicated. GFS ensembles fail to paint a clear picture, although it’s worth noting that some members do bring Jose close enough for impacts to be felt along the U.S. east coast. Via NCAR

Sorgente: Hurricane Jose may meander not far from the East Coast through Friday – The Washington Post

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